Welcome to SnyderTalk!
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The Week That Was (The most recent facts about global warming.)
by Ken Haapala
Executive Vice President, Science and Environmental Policy Project
Doha Over? As of this writing it appears that the 18th Annual Conference of Parties (COP 18) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Doha, Qatar, ended its two-week session to try to reach an agreement for the control of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to replace the expiring Kyoto Protocol. It ended in an all too typical 24 hour negotiating marathon in which it appears little was accomplished except to do it again. The Kyoto Protocol was extended to 2020 for the countries that agreed. (Details are not yet clear.)
The Green political groups, partially funded by the US government, criticized the lack of progress (read economic penalties self-inflected on wealthy countries). China and India would have none of this blood-letting. The UK taxpayers appear to be big losers with Ed Davey, the Climate Change Secretary, agreeing to some deal that will commit Britain to spending billions of pounds, part of which will go to subsidize inferior sources of electricity in Africa under some green fund with details to follow. No doubt, few of the claimed benefits will actually be delivered to those who need it the most.
Of course, the alarmists claim a deal must be struck immediately because their science states that unless carbon dioxide emissions are limited, the end is near. Their science does not consider the fact that the HadCRU surface temperatures show no global warming trend in 16 years. Do not let facts to get in the way of ideological belief! The touching moment came when the Philippine climate change commissioner fought back tears when claiming the typhoon that hit the Philippines was exacerbated by global warming / climate change. Simply because he believes it so does not make it so. The cyclone data contradict his claims.
With usual aplomb, Christopher Monckton commandeered a microphone during a break and announced to the climate change diplomats that nature is not obeying their science and their models. He was quickly escorted out of the room and his credentials seized. The pompous do not care to be reminded of their ignorance.
In the run-up to Doha, numerous organizations made outrageous predictions of the extent of global warming / climate change if CO2 emissions are not controlled. An informal survey shows that the World Bank was the winner of the most outlandish prize. The Bank claimed that temperatures will rise by 4 degrees C (7.2F) in about fifty years (as early as the 2060s). Also the Bank claimed that the Arab world would suffer the most. This was politically very appropriate, because the conference was being held in part of the Arab world.
However, its claims demonstrate that the World Bank’s climate experts are apparently ignorant of climate history. According to H.H. Lamb, during the period of about 5500 to 8000 years ago the Sahara was wet and populated with elephants, hippopotami, crocodiles, etc. Subsequent archeological research shows cultures relying on agriculture, including dairy. The Northern Hemisphere, if not the world, was warmer during this period. The tropical rains that brought life giving water failed as the hemisphere cooled. But why consider messy climate history, when you have a beautiful, unvalidated, computer model? Please see links under Challenging the Orthodoxy, Defending the Orthodoxy, Dire Doha, and Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
The State of the Earth: Craig Idso, of CO2 Science, and a lead author of the reports of the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC) titled Climate Change Reconsidered, just published a lengthy report: The State of Earth’s Terrestrial Biosphere: How is it Responding to Rising Atmospheric CO2 and Warmer Temperatures? Using hundreds of empirical studies, the report refutes the claims of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is stressing natural plants and human agriculture by reducing plant growth and development.
Over the past few decades, plants are growing robustly thanks to increases in atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Plants should be able to adapt to increasing temperatures, assuming the IPCC models are correct, and increase water use efficiency. Increasing CO2 concentrations are a boon to agriculture and humanity, not the threat the IPCC claims. The report categorizes the studies by continents and identifies countries such as China by natural category (grasslands, deserts, etc.). Over the past 50 years, the net carbon uptake has doubled and there is no evidence that the uptake will decline from rising temperatures.
The report is a valuable, empirical contribution on the effects of carbon dioxide emissions. One wonders how many “climate experts” in organizations such as the World Bank will read such a report. Please see links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
The New AGU: Reports from the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU) indicates that the new executive director of the AGU, Chris McEntee, is leading the venerable institution directly into politics and targeting those members of Congress who are skeptical about the IPCC version of global warming / climate change. This is unfortunate because it may prove to be disastrous for American science if the IPCC is wrong, as TWTW asserts. It is a path of a new form of Lysenkoism that proved to be destructive for Soviet biological science.
One is reminded of the statement by Jane Lubchenco, the current Administrator of NOAA, made in her lecture as retiring president of AAAS: “Urgent and unprecedented environmental and social changes challenge scientists to define a new social contract…a commitment on the part of all scientists to devote their energies and talents to the most pressing problems of the day, in proportion to their importance, in exchange for public funding.” [Boldface added]. Making false claims about science will surely reduce government funding of science eventually.
The New Fingerprint? The quote of the week comes from Benjamin Santer, who is lead author of a new paper claiming to have discovered a new distinct human fingerprint of late 20th century warming. The old Santer fingerprint was the claimed human caused warming trend in the atmosphere above the tropics, which was found in the climate models. However, as reported by Douglass, Christy, Pearson, and Singer, weather balloon data of measurements at the appropriate altitudes and latitudes failed to show the pronounced warming trend. NIPCC 2008 Fig 10: http://www.sepp.org/publications/NIPCC_final.pdf
Without going into details of the research, the statement has significant problems. It is a classic in Argumentum ad ignoraniam (an appeal to ignorance). I cannot think of any other explanation, so my conclusion must be correct.
As discussed in recent TWTWs, hindcasting, fitting the climate models to historic data is fraught with uncertainty. The internal uncertainty in the models allows them to be fitted to significantly varying data. In the past, surface data was used. Now, satellite data is used. Yet, there is a significant variance between surface data and satellite data that the climate establishment largely ignores. The method of hindcasting is roughly analogous to pouring warm gelatin into a mold. It will fit whatever mold one chooses.
In the past the IPCC has largely ignored the satellite data and relied on surface data. Further, the satellite data shows little or no warming trend from 1979 to the late 1990s, then a jump, followed by a no warming trend for over a decade. Needless to say, the relationship between atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and temperatures is weak. An additional issue is that the satellite record clearly shows that the warming is concentrated in the northern part of the Northern Hemisphere and hardly global.
According to the reports, the new research will be a scientific core to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR-5), due out in 2013 and 2014. It will be interesting. Please see links under Defending the Orthodoxy.
Oil Spill and Consequences: Several studies were released questioning the value of dispersants that were used in the BP Gulf Oil Spill. According to the first study, injecting the dispersants directly into the well was unnecessary and provided no real benefit. According to the second study mixing dispersants with oil greatly increased the toxicity of the oil. An additional important area of research would be studying microbes for use in future events as well as comprehending the speed of recovery after the use of dispersants. Please see links under Oil Spills, Gas Leaks & Consequences.
Grid Costs of Renewables: The OECD Nuclear Energy Agency released a study of the costs of introducing erratic renewables, such solar and wind, onto an electrical grid system made up of reliable sources of electricity (coal, gas and nuclear) which are termed as dispatchable technologies. The findings should give pause to those who are considering the merits of different types.
“The study considers six technologies in detail: nuclear, coal, gas, onshore wind, offshore wind and solar. It finds that the so-called dispatchable technologies – coal, gas and nuclear – have system costs of less than $3 per MWh, while the system costs for renewables can reach up to $40 per MWh for onshore wind, $45 per MWh for offshore wind and $80 per MWh for solar. The costs for renewables vary depending on the country, technology and penetration levels, with higher system costs for greater penetration of renewables.” Please see link under Energy Issues – Non-US.
Number of the Week: Between 8 inches (0.2 meters) and 6.6 feet (2.0 meters), with 90% certainty. “Global sea level rise has been a persistent trend for decades. It is expected to continue beyond the end of this century, which will cause significant impacts in the United States. Scientists have very high confidence (greater than 90% chance) that global mean sea level will rise at least 8 inches (0.2 meter) and no more than 6.6 feet (2.0 meters) by 2100.” From: the NOAA Climate Program Office.
Actual global sea level rise has been ongoing for about 180 centuries – far longer than a persistent trend for decades. NOAA appears to be adopting the disinformation of James Hansen who predicts 6 meters (19.7 feet) of rise, but along a strongly exponential curve with most of the rise in the last few decades of the century. It is impossible to prove him wrong for many years. Is this what EPA is thinking with it declares to Federal judges that it is 90 to 99% certain about its science? Please see link under Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
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Ezekiel 36: 22-26
“Therefore say to the house of Israel, ‘Thus says Adonai Yahweh, “It is not for your sake, O house of Israel, that I am about to act, but for My holy name, which you have profaned among the nations where you went. I will vindicate the holiness of My great name which has been profaned among the nations, which you have profaned in their midst. Then the nations will know that I am Yahweh,” declares Adonai Yahweh, “when I prove Myself holy among you in their sight. For I will take you from the nations, gather you from all the lands and bring you into your own land. Then I will sprinkle clean water on you, and you will be clean; I will cleanse you from all your filthiness and from all your idols. Moreover, I will give you a new heart and put a new spirit within you; and I will remove the heart of stone from your flesh and give you a heart of flesh.”
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His Name is Yahweh explains why the Name of God, Yahweh, is so important. It’s available in eBook format and in paperback.
- God also said to Moses, “Say to the Israelites, ‘Yahweh, the God of your fathers—the God of Abraham, the God of Isaac and the God of Jacob—has sent me to you.’ This [Yahweh] is my name forever, the name by which I am to be remembered from generation to generation.” (Exodus 3: 15)
- “Therefore behold, I am going to make them know—this time I will make them know My power and My might; and they shall know that My name is Yahweh.” (Jeremiah 16: 21)
- “Behold, the days are coming,” declares Yahweh, “when I will raise up for David a righteous Branch; and He will reign as king and act wisely and do justice and righteousness in the land. In His days Judah will be saved, and Israel will dwell securely; and this is His name by which He will be called, ‘Yahweh our righteousness.’” (Jeremiah 23: 5-6)
- Yeshua said to them, “Truly, truly, I say to you, before Abraham was born, I am.” (John 8: 58)
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Yahweh Said He is Our Only Savior
To download the entire audio presentation, click here.
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Hosea 4: 6
My people are destroyed for lack of knowledge.
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Oren: Israel will act if Hezbollah gets Syrian WMDs
US bill to urge EU to label Hezbollah terror group
In fog of war, when are the media human shields?
EU condemns Hamas rhetoric, Israeli settlement plans
PM: Settlements don’t preclude Palestinian state
Mashaal leaves Gaza with calls for Palestinian unity
‘PA grants Hamas permission to hold W. Bank rally’
Report: Israel leaking Iranian nuclear information
IDF investigating W. Bank rock-throwing incidents
Egypt’s Morsi imposes martial law for referendum
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Abbas Warms up to Axis of Evil
Hanukkah Brings Hope to Hevron, Despite Threat of Evacuations
Syria Says it has ‘Serious Fear’ it is Being Framed
Sudan Captures Israeli ‘Spy Vulture’
PM: Where is Outrage as Hamas Openly Seeks Our Destruction?
Fleeing Soldiers: Officers Afraid of Media Photos
Islamic Jihad Pokes First Cracks in Ceasefire
Syrian Rebels Deploy Homemade Armored ‘Box’
Lebanon: 6 Dead in Syria-Related Clashes
Inside Look at Muslim Brotherhood’s Torture Rooms
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Israel sees no immediate threat from Syrian chemical weapons
Abbas to petition international court to stop E1 construction
Palestinian Authority president appeals for urgent Arab aid
Video of IDF troops fleeing Palestinian rioters causes stir
Gadi Eizenkot named deputy IDF chief of staff
Lapid files suit against latest haredi exemption policy
Likud: Livni is the great hope of the Palestinians
Report: Danny Ayalon fired due to unauthorized Clinton meetings
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Washington Post complains Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense is too perfect
Unable to Respond, Israeli Soldiers Chased by Arab Mob Sustain Injuries (VIDEO)
Netanyahu Says Israel Will Withstand “International Pressure”
Report: Israeli Special Forces Inside Syria Tracking Chemical and Biological Weapons
Syria’s civil war spills into Lebanon again, 4 killed in gun battles
Egypt arrests suspect in Amb. Stevens murder
Egyptian Opposition, Pro-Presidential Forces Planning Rival Rallies
Egypt crisis: Morsi orders military to keep order
Bomb kills Afghan police chief
Venezuela’s Chavez says cancer back, plans surgery
Venezuelan Vice President to Lead the Country
SEAL Team Six member dies in rescue of American doctor
EU receives Nobel for building “continent of peace”
Italy Vote Will Test EU Nobel Winners After Greek Buyback
Same-sex couples start marrying in Washington
Government borrows 46 cents for every dollar we spend
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Itai Reuveni: The dark knights of human rights— Instead of bashing Israel, take a look at Iran.
Nadav Shragai: Greeks and Palestinians, then and now— Our enemies want to destroy our identity.
Elliott Abrams: What does Hamas want?— Recent belligerent remarks prove yet again what Hamas wants and how it plans to get there.
Isi Leibler: Ignorance, hypocrisy and double standards— Jerusalem and Maaleh Adumim and the major adjacent settlement blocs will remain part of Israel and this is one issue concerning which we must remain steadfast.
Dan Margalit: Palestinians are the obstacles to peace— They don’t want the most flexible peace that Israel can offer.
Shmuley Boteach: Chanukah, Where the Jews Lit Candles Rather than Celebrate War—Chanuka is Judaism’s most universal holiday with deep resonance for all Americans. Our great country was founded by refugees who escaped religious persecution in Europe and were prepared to cross an ocean in order to found a colony where they could worship as they chose. Indeed, freedom of religion applied as a principle of colonial…
Jacob Kamaras: Explaining the ‘Maccabees’ Moniker for Jewish Athletics—Jewish athletes from around the world gather every four years in Israel for the Olympic-style Maccabiah Games, not to mention the…
National-Abu Dhabi Editorial: Hamas Is Failing Its Responsibility to Palestinians—When Khaled Meshaal, the exiled leader of Hamas, declared himself a martyr-in-waiting in Gaza on Friday, he confirmed that violence is the group’s only vision for the future. But blinded by its narrative of resistance, Hamas is unable to see how clearly it is failing its own people. Gazans are unemployed, angry and desperate, but Hamas’ rocket fire will do nothing to improve life in the Strip.
Emanuele Ottolenghi: Palestine’s Strangely Stubborn State of Mind— The late PLO leader, Yasser Arafat, fought anyone who dared encourage compromise with Israel. That brought more grief onto the Palestinians than all the wars with Israel combined. Arafat’s brief stint in Jordan ended with its king, the late Hussein, slaughtering thousands of Palestinians to save his throne. Arafat’s reliance on Saddam Hussein cost hundreds of thousands of Palestinians their livelihoods in Kuwait in 1991 – after the emirate was liberated.
Allon Friedman: From Al-Masara to the Wall Street Journal: A Case Report of Palestinian Fauxtography—A testament to the media’s all-encompassing anti-Israel bias…albeit in an unexpected place.
Marwan Bishara: Egypt’s revolution is far from over—There’s nothing’s like walking alongside the Nile to give one a historical perspective on the momentous changes sweeping through Egypt and the Arab region. Watching this ancient nation react to the dramatic developments since the downfall of Hosni Mubarak is sobering.
Max Boot: The Fantasy of Hamas’s Moderation—Hamas, at least according to one increasingly popular line of reasoning in both the U.S. and Europe, is supposed to be turning more moderate because of its governance responsibilities in the Gaza Strip. Indeed, many commentators claimed to see evidence of its growing maturity in its decision to agree with Israel on a relatively fast cease-fire deal after the most recent round of fighting. Many call for engaging in negotiations with Hamas on the assumption that it is tacitly accepting a two-state solution.
P. David Hornik: Should Israel Let the Palestinian Authority Fail?— Critics say enough is enough.
Jamie Glazov: Female Genital Mutilation: An Islamic Crime—And the Left forces our culture to turn a blind eye.
Norman Rogers: The American Geophysical Union and Climate Hysteria—For the true believers ideology trumps facts. They are agile thinkers and can always figure a way to explain away any negative information that might disconfirm the impending climate catastrophe.
Thomas Lifson: Monckton mocks UN Climate Conference—Lord Christopher Monckton, the man Al Gore is afraid to debate, managed to get before a microphone and speak to the startled delegates at the UN Climate Conference in Doha, Qatar for just under a minute.
Anna Mulrine: Pentagon’s Plan X: how it could change cyberwarfare— The Pentagon has always been secretive about its desire and ability to carry out offensive cyberwarfare. Now, Plan X makes it clear that offensive cyberattacks will be in the Pentagon playbook.
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Blessings in the Book of Revelation is a book that you need to read, especially now. There are blessings throughout the Scriptures but Revelation is the only book in the Bible actually containing a specific blessing for reading it. It’s repeated twice, once at the beginning and again at the end. This is the reason that I believe Revelation should be the first step toward studying biblical prophecy. Though not easy to do, Revelation can be broken down and understood by anyone, not just the academic elite. So, Revelation’s blessings are for everyone. Click here to order the eBook. Click here to order the paperback.
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Other Books by Neil Snyder
- Stand! is a suspense novel that exposes the lies, corruption, and greed underlying the theory that man-made CO2 emissions are responsible for global warming. Professor Wes Carlyle and Karen Sterling, his research collaborator, carefully scan the audience for their would-be attacker—a member of the enviro-gestapo who has been following them for days. Wes spots his man in the back of the room leaning against the wall. Suddenly, another man in the audience steps forward and moves toward Karen at a menacing pace. With a vicious stroke, he swings a billy club at her head. Click here to order the eBook. Click here to order the paperback.
- What Will You Do with the Rest of Your Life? deals with a question that every Christian has to consider: what should I do with my life? Click here to order the eBook. Click here to order the paperback.
- Falsely Accused is a true story about a young woman who was accused of committing a double homicide. It’s about a travesty of justice, and it reveals Yahweh intervening in the life of a believer to rescue her from danger in the face of seemingly insurmountable odds. Everyone will enjoy the book, but young people in particular need to read it because the mistakes made that led to the problem could have been avoided. They were the kinds of mistakes that young people are prone to make. As they say, forewarned is forearmed. Click here to order the eBook. Click here to order the paperback.
